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It is expected to remain around 1.6 million tons, with little year-on-year change. Paraffin wax production capacity remains at 2.06 million tons per year, and Chinese refineries have no plans to increase capacity in the next few years. Refineries of Dalian, Maoming and Daqing will have regular maintenance in 2024, and it has a limited impact on the total domestic paraffin wax supply,yet it has a great impact on the supply of some high melting point paraffin.
Following a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic and industry cycles, some institutions predict that the crude oil market is likely to continue to operate at high levels in 2024, with the mainstream fluctuation range of US crude oil between $75-85/barrel. As a petrochemical product, paraffin wax will also enjoy cost support due to rising oil prices.
According to the current statistics, the main domestic demand for paraffin wax in 2024 is still dominated bcandles, wood and boards, packaging, and plastic additives. Candles account for 46%, export candles are expected to maintain the level of 2023 due to upgrades in demand from various countries and competition from alternative products for civilian candles. Plastic additives account for 14%, mainly considering the price advantage of Fischer-Tropsch wax products, which may inhibit the increase in wax usage for plastics and masterbatches materials. Wood and boards account for 13%, influenced by the real estate industry, showing a downward trend. Packaging and tires together account for 20%, considering the increasing demand in the international market for new energy tires and packaging, the demand for paraffin wax is increasing. Overall, the demand for paraffin wax is stable.
In 2024, the main driving factors affecting the Chinese paraffin wax market and paraffin wax manufacturers are cost, demand, supply, macroeconomics. After Chinese new year, for the downstream production recovered, the price of paraffin wax have the frequent increase from the end of February. The up trend will last in the first half year. From July, for the abroad demand decrease, the price would have some decrease in the second half of 2024.
